Nature Food | 优化中国玉米和大豆生产可同时降低氮碳足迹和提高自给能力

*中文标题和摘要系简单翻译，可能存在部分错误，请以英文为准

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摘要：

中国购买了大豆国际贸易中的 66% ，这加剧了全球粮食供应紧张，并增加了温室气体排放。在这里，我们表明优化中国的玉米和大豆生产可以提高自给能力，并减轻不利的环境影响。使用来自中国 1,800 多个县的数据，我们估计了面积加权产量潜力和产量差距，将可达到的产量设置为每个县前 10% 的生产者实现的产量。我们还根据一套可持续性标准，绘制出各县的种植面积分配，并计算可达到的生产能力。在优化条件下，到 2035 年，以2017年同样的种植面积，中国将能够生产所需的全部玉米和 45% 的大豆——同时减少 26% 的氮肥用量，减少 28% 的活性氮损失和 19% 的温室气体排放。

Abstract

China purchases around 66% of the soy that is traded internationally. This strains the global food supply and contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. Here we show that optimizing the maize and soy production of China can improve its self-sufficiency and also alleviate adverse environmental effects. Using data from more than 1,800 counties in China, we estimate the area-weighted yield potential (Ypot) and yield gaps, setting the attainable yield (Yatt) as the yield achieved by the top 10% of producers per county. We also map out county-by-county acreage allocation and calculate the attainable production capacity according to a set of sustainability criteria. Under optimized conditions, China would be able to produce all the maize and 45% of the soy needed by 2035—while reducing nitrogen fertilizer use by 26%, reactive nitrogen loss by 28% and greenhouse gas emissions by 19%—with the same acreage as 2017, our reference year.

原文链接（点击“阅读原文”跳转）：

http://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00300-1

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